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| 54. | The Commission may also rely on information about how customers are likely to react to hypothetical changes in relative supply conditions (‘hypothetical substitution’). Reasoned answers of customers and competitors regarding such hypothetical substitution can be informative for identifying substitute products. In some cases, evidence of hypothetical substitution may also be available from surveys of a representative sample of customers. Evidence of hypothetical substitution may constitute the only available direct (quantitative) evidence of demand substitution and may be informative for the assessment. Nevertheless, evidence of hypothetical substitution may be less reliable than evidence of actual substitution, for example because hypothetical demand substitution has no actual consequences for customers or because of other behavioural biases. In particular, views of market participants relating to the likelihood or magnitude of hypothetical switching to an alternative product may not be sufficiently reliable, complete or accurate to allow the Commission to estimate elasticities of demand. However, this is a case-by-case assessment and depends on the strength of the evidence available.

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Source: EUR-Lex (Cellar) · retrieved 2026-09-07 · Text as adopted (Official Journal); later amendments are not incorporated in this text.